Cassandra Grützner

Title of Dissertation: What if…? Counterfactual reasoning in ethical decision-making in business contexts

Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Philipp Schreck
University: MLU Halle-Wittenberg
Scholarship: HaVo-Stipendium
Cohort: 8th Cohort, since 2021
Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

• Short Abstract

  Counterfactual thought has been shown to both encourage and inhibit unethical behaviour - which elements of the counterfactual mind-set lead agents to act (un)ethically, and how can we instrumentalise these elements to encourage ethical behaviour?

  What if…? That’s a question often asked when contemplating prior events and decisions. But is the consideration of possible outcomes integral to the way we make ethical decisions?
  The core of my project aims to identify how counterfactual thinking influences ethical decision making within a business context, drawing from insights from cognitive neuroscience, behavioural economics, psychology, philosophy and decision theory more broadly construed. A counterfactual is any statement that is counter to the facts, meaning any statement that is not true in the given states of affairs. Counterfactual thinking is reasoning that reflects upon that which is not the case - it is used when evaluating how the past could have turned out, and how the future may develop by mentally creating possible alternative scenarios to reality.

  Based on the dual process theory, counterfactuals are understood to influence ethical decision processes in roughly two ways: by biasing cognitive judgements and by influencing affective emotions.

  Considering cognitive functions, counterfactual thought seems to be integral to risk judgements. Intuitive risk judgements are often argued to be biased due to the availability heuristic, a mental shortcut leading people to overestimate the risk of an event based on how easy to imagine it is. In turn, agents' decisions to act immorally are often dependent on these perceived risks (e.g., the perceived risk of being caught or of a negative consequence taking place) rendering an understanding of how imagination is influencing risk perceptions especially valuable with regard to the prevention of unethical behaviour.

  In the emotive realm, counterfactual thought modulates anticipatory emotions such as regret or relief. These emotions have been shown to be especially effective at motivating individuals to make decisions - in some cases more so than actually experienced emotions do.
  In some cases, both emotive and cognitive counterfactual influences have been shown to promote ethical decisions. In other cases, they have been found to encourage unethical behaviour. A deeper understanding of how these anticipatory emotions lead to decisions can therefore be useful to not only analyse why unethical decisions might have been made, but also for creating environments that encourage individuals to reason in ways that motivate desirable behaviours.

  My work aims to investigate the way counterfactuals influence both the cognitive and the emotive decision making process within a business context. While work on counterfactual decision making has been on the rise, investigations of counterfactuals in organisational settings have been largely underexplored.
  I aim to apply experimental methods as used in behavioural economics and psychology to identify what triggers counterfactual thought, and which kinds of counterfactuals lead to ethical behaviour. Additionally, I will combine these empirical results with more traditional philosophical methods to further our conceptual understanding of counterfactuals in the realm of ethical business decisions. Further, I aim to form normative recommendations on how to overcome potentially harmful side effects of the counterfactual mindset and instrumentalise the promising aspects of counterfactual reasoning in an applied setting.

• Research Interests

  • Decision Making
  • Imagination
  • Counterfactual Reasoning
  • Heuristics and Biases

• Education

  • 2021, MSc Applied Social Psychology, Higher School of Economics Moscow, Russia
  • 2021, MSc Economic Psychology, University of Tilburg, Netherlands
  • 2020, Study Abroad, Ca’ Foscari, Venice, Italy
  • 2019, BA (Hons) Psychology & Philosophy, University of Stirling, Scotland
  • 2018, Study Abroad, City University Hong Kong, Hong Kong

• Professional and Academic Career

  Company Internships i.a.

  • 2021, UX & Design Research/Data Intern, Bang & Olufsen, Struer, Denmark
  • 2019, Human Rights Research Intern, Clifford Chance, London, England
  • 2018, Human Resources Intern, UPM, Krakow, Poland

• Publications

  • Stuart, Michael T., McLoone, Brian and Grützner, Cassandra. Counterpossible Reasoning in Biology. (Under Review.)

• Conference Contributions: Talks

  • 2021, Modal Modelling in Science: Modal Epistemology Meets Philosophy of Science, “Counterpossible Reasoning in Biology: An Empirical Study.” with B. McLoone and M.T. Stuart, KTH Stockholm, Sweden.

• Conference Contributions: Posters

  • N/A

• Awards

  • Studienstiftung des Deutschen Volkes – Masters Scholarship
  • Higher School of Economics Merit Scholarship – Tuition Waiver and Accom-modation Coverage
  • Antony Duff Research Prize – University of Stirling, Law and Philosophy De-partment, awarded for research excellence as demonstrated by my BA dissertation
  • Undergraduate of the Year 2019 Awards – Honourable Mention by Target Jobs & Clifford Chance

• Memberships

  • N/A